40?! I'm really, really skeptical about a single number like this.

Let’s say the time taken for ETI to evolve is similar to that on earth: around 3 billion years. The study found even if there was a 99% chance of life wiping itself out, there would be around 40 ETI species in our galaxy alone, with most of it being a few billion years older than us.
A New Paper Says the Human Race Is an Accident
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Tom Ritchford
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Dec 31, 2020
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40?! I'm really, really skeptical about a single number like this.
The input numbers used to calculate have extremely wide error ranges, and are basically guesses. I'd be expecting a really wide range of results, if they were honest - "between 4 and 400 species" or even, "between 0.4 and 4000 species".
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