Tom Ritchford
2 min readJul 7, 2021

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"Because we're human." This reads like pre-John W. Campbell SF.

Why isn't there a settlement in Antarctic? This is a far, far more hospitable place than any off-planet place we know of.

Because it's just too awful. Only scientists who are directly working on projects relating to the Antarctic stay there, and for specific, limited time periods of time. No one raises a family there.

Only a tiny number of people would be willing to give up nature and society entirely forever, and most of them would probably be uncooperative crazy people. If you cared about society even a little bit, why would you do this to yourself?

Columbus never intended to move to the New World, but he found a place that was richer than the place that had left, and that already had people living there. People could move there, hunt, set up a farm, make a self-sufficient living immediately. England could send a hundred or so boats out with a few thousand people, some grain, some weapons, and some tools, and start collecting tax money.

Space is not that place. It is incredibly resource poor compared with the Earth.

All you write relies on wild unrealism on that topic, supported by a complete unwillingness to do any of the maths, engineering or physics.

Even the most order-of-magnitude sketches of the costs or the magnitude of materials needed to get even millions of people permanently off-planet should convince that your ideas are fantasy, not SF.

Try this - imagine you are looking at the first pressure suit entirely built off-world - on Mars, wherever you like.

If you can't build your own spacesuits on Mars, you aren't self-sustaining, right?

Now add up all the industries that would need to exist to build a fairly regular, not-so-fancy pressure suit. You'd need chip fabs which means a chemical industry able to produce and distribute a wide range incredibly pure chemicals. You'd need plastic manufacturing from whatever raw materials you have, you'd need a textiles industry, you'd need power and water and air plants and nurseries and dormitories and, oh, food and places to live of course, and transportation and entertainment and video screens and sewage and plumbing and transportation and rocket ships even and maybe even a tiny little park with a few trees carefully grown from seed

You're talking about not just replicating but reinventing tens of trillions of dollars of infrastructure on Earth that have developed over generations, because almost every industrial technique on Earth relies on huge quantities of water and oxygen just lying around for free.

So the total cost to get to that first pressure suit built entirely off-world would be on the order of three to one hundred quadrillion dollars in 2021 dollars, or about 40 to 1200 times world GDP in 2020.

For a fraction of 1% of that money we could not kill our own biosphere.

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