Tom Ritchford
2 min readMar 13, 2024

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Commercial aviation is incompatible with a future for our biosphere.

In order to keep our temperature rise to only +2ºC - a level that will still result in tremendous destruction to our natural world and to humanity's ability to feed ourselves - we need to decarbonize by 90% in the next ten years.

But in fact, our emissions continue to rise, every year: the aviation industry expects to grow by 3.6 annually until 2030.

And as your article and the comments on it show, no one seems to even be aware of this, the greatest threat ever to confront humanity in written history.

What are people thinking? That all the world's climatologists are in a conspiracy? That the unprecedented high temperatures all over the world are a conspiracy?

My theory is that they just aren't thinking about it at all. They think someone else will fix this.

As a boy who loved science, I've known about this issue since the 1970s. For decades I assumed that we would rise to the challenge and not kill our biosphere. We did nothing.

CO2 levels have rise by over 33% since I was a kid Global temperature are already +1.5ºC over baseline, and rising. Extreme weather events are everywhere, and the glaciers are melting. Still we do nothing.

My theory is that nothing significant will change; that we're going to continue to burn fossil fuels like there's no tomorrow until there really is no tomorrow; that we'll go to +3ºC and up, which will scour large parts of the planet of human life and leave almost all humans except the rich immiserated for the rest of time.

Sorry, I cannot find it in my heart to give this essay even a single clap.

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