"Continue" to get better? At this moment the economy is in collapse. Fifty million Americans out of work! The tiny "dead cat bounce" after the huge bloodletting doesn't mean the economy is getting better.

More, it's pretty clear that there will have to be more lockdowns, given the 400,000 new cases and 4,000 deaths in the last week, and then the shit will really hit the fan.

There might well be a vaccine before the election. The chances that there will be enough to inoculate even one-third of Americans is tiny.

Given so many Loonie-Americans completely distrust science and medicine these days, and given that most vaccines are not 100% effective and quite a few virus vaccines are closer to 50% effective, I believe that the chance of getting anywhere near the 85% immunity level, which is a floor for herd immunity, is zero.

I would add that my prediction rate is far better than your interlocutor: after the first Presidential debate in 2016 we were already planning our move to the Netherlands.

I believe that Trump could still "win". For example, if he unilaterally decided that all mail-in ballots were fakes and used Homeland Security to seize and destroy as many of them as he could, this might give him a "win".

Expect to see a lot of that sort of thing come November. (My tentative prediction is that you will deny this could ever happen now, and come November, you will be agreeing that every mail-in ballot is a fraud, but you can't take this one to the bank.)

Whatever happens, we can be certainly that Trump will continue to do everything in his power to disrupt the orderly election process.