Good article in general - but this won't happen, though it might be that some other country leaves.

Let's look at Italy, in fact. Imagine if they pulled out of the EU! One dollar in seven of their GDP is tourism, and they would suddenly be surrounded by borders. Their main exports are in things like "precision instruments" and "food", both of which benefit immeasurably from common standards.

I live in the Netherlands. We would never leave. It would be too costly, and generally too stupid.

I would instead look west, to the United States, and what will happen there the first time the Presidential election actually fails.

They've come close twice, once in 2000 and once in 2020, and now with all these secretary-generals threatening to ignore actual votes, what happens if there is no clearly accepted result, where D and R states proclaim different results?

Losing Britain was painful, but no one got shot. As I recall, the last time the US tried to un-U, there was blood.