I first started to think that sometime in the 1980s and I still think so.

Things have slowly slowly deteriorated in the 40 years since, but subsequently I realized that empires crumble very slowly, then all at once, and this will be triply true given the interconnected nature of our society where almost every community relies on resources taken from all over the world.

So I expect a continuing crumble for months, years, perhaps a decade or two, and then something dramatic that changes everything, forever.