Tom Ritchford
Apr 2, 2023

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I'm sorry, but this is total and complete bullshit which makes a mockery of probability. No insult toward you intended, you are the reporter and not the originator!

If I roll a 1 on a six-sided die, it's not a useful, operative statement to say that the chance of rolling a 2 was zero.

For example, suppose I roll 1 twenty times in a row. Rationally, I should be considering the possibility that the die is loaded and not the idea that the chance of this happening was 100% because it did happen.

The whole idea of Bayesian statistics mitigates against this.

Dennett makes a lot of detailed arguments that my above reasoning is true even in a completely deterministic universe, I believe in his book Freedom Evolves.

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