No realistic projections have us hitting 20% in 2050, unfortunately.

This "20% in 2050" is a goal of the "net zero" movement, but at this time it seems almost inconceivable that we will hit it.

I am a numbers person. I've been watching this whole catastrophe unfold in slow motion for. years, and one of the awful things is that the world keeps promising for decades that it will soon slow down on fossil fuels, and yet in fact, every year we consume more fossil fuels.

The amount of renewable energy produced increases quickly, but the amount of fossil fuel energy produced also increases, though not as fast.

Fossil fuel has increased quite monotonically each year for over two centuries. If you zoom into the last forty or fifty years, you can see some individual years where fossil fuel use dipped a couple of percent: https://ourworldindata.org/energy-mix

Each of these corresponded to recessions - periods where economic output also dropped. The last one was COVID, and the one before that was the Global Financial Crisis.

In each case, governments moved heaven and earth to reverse the recessions. In 2021 and 2011, fossil fuel use immediately jumped to a new high again the next year. Obama became the best friend fossil fuels ever had.

The fossil fuel industry is anticipating between 0.3% and 1.2% annual increase in production for the next eight years.

Imagine a drunkard who tells you they are going to drink more each day for the next few months, but swears they will be drinking 50% less by the end of next year. "While I am drinking a little more each day, that daily increase is the lowest it's ever been!"