Putin has so far neither won nor lost the war. But I think any rational observer would have to agree that the Ukrainian invasion certainly didn't go the way Putin planned or expected.

Also consider these numbers: the GDP of the USA is over $23 trillion; the GDP of the EU is over $16 trillion; the GDP of Russia is not even $2 trillion. And there are plenty of other countries helping Ukraine, like Canada, GDP almost exactly $2 trillion.

So Russia is going up against a group of countries which together have well over twenty times the "income". Historically, such lopsided wars where the invading party did not have deep pockets have gone badly.

I've read a lot of history, and seen a reasonable amount of it happen in front of me, and if I have learned one thing, it's that predicting the outcome of a war is very, very hard. If I had to pick one feature to predict based on, it would be economics (see above), but I would still expect to be wrong a lot of the time.

You went too far one way, and now you're going too far the other way. Let's see what happens.