Your numbers are very reasonable.

I’ve read a bunch of papers about this, and I studied some epidemiology as part of my mathematics degree. Your numbers are very much in line with both my own primitive calculations and other papers by actual scientists that I have read. Bravo for having actual scientific sense.

And yes, everyone will get it. As an older asthmatic, I can assure you the prospect does not thrill me.

And yes, it’s a balancing act. Clearly we can’t shut down our economy forever. But just as clearly we have to take drastic measures immediately.

It’s the idea that a million and a half people are “a few” lives that appalled me. You might get more rational responses from people if you didn’t use such terminology. From a statistical sense, less than 1% of the population is “a few” In a human sense, it’s a catastrophe.